Burkina Faso ‘CCC+/C’ Ratings Affirmed, Outlook Stable -S&P
S&P Global Ratings affirmed its ‘CCC+’ long-term and ‘C’ short-term sovereign credit ratings on Burkina Faso, with a stable outlook accorded.
The stable outlook reflects the balance between the political, economic, and budgetary headwinds Burkina Faso faces amid a challenging regional and global security situation, against the backdrop of the country’s relatively strong growth.
The country’s membership in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) helps provide exchange rate and monetary stability. S&P said regional political volatility has remained high since the military-led government took over in September 2022.
Although administrative and technocratic continuity has largely been maintained, security challenges and the broader terrorism threat in the Sahel region keep political and economic risks high.
Ratings analysts noted that continued engagement with key multilateral partners, including the IMF and World Bank, has provided an important anchor for fiscal policy.
However, the effects of the Middle East conflict could hamper economic recovery and fiscal consolidation efforts, S&P said.
“We expect Burkina Faso to remain a member of WAEMU. The country benefits from the union’s capital market access, price stability, and foreign exchange reserve coverage.
“Despite Burkina Faso’s exit from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in January 2025 and the suspension of democratic elections and civilian rule, we assess the risk of new regional and international sanctions as low.
“Relations with ECOWAS have improved in recent months, and WAEMU membership ensures continued access to the regional bond market, a key source of financing for Burkina Faso.
“We project robust economic growth averaging 4.4% over 2026-2029, driven by improving minerals and agricultural output”.
S&P said sustained government support for the primary and secondary sectors, including mining and strategic investments in agricultural equipment and fertilizers, will further enhance production and productivity, while reducing import dependence through expanded industrial development.
It noted, however, that continued economic performance will rely on favourable climate conditions and improved security in rural regions and key mining areas.
“Continued bilateral and multilateral support, alongside high gold prices, has anchored fiscal policy and eased external pressures.
“In February 2026, the IMF’s executive board completed its fourth review under the four-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement approved in 2023, releasing an additional $33.2 million and bringing total IMF financial support to approximately $165.8 million.
“We anticipate the government will maintain prudent fiscal management, although it needs to spend on security spending needs to fight terrorism, and expenditure tied to mitigating current external shocks related to the situation in Iran could slow deficit reduction.
“We project the current account deficit will average 1.0% of GDP over 2026-2029, supported by high gold prices, recovering mining output, and easing import prices”, S&P analysts stated.
Nevertheless, risks persist, the rating note emphasised, explaining that the ongoing terrorist threat from Sahel-based criminal groups, underscored by an attempted coup in January 2026, highlights significant internal vulnerabilities.
Intensified violent attacks in neighboring countries, such as the coordinated strikes by al-Qaida-linked JNIM militants and Tuareg separatists in late April 2026 that targeted several towns, killing Mali’s defense minister, demonstrate regional instability.
Political tensions have eased but renewed instability remains possible, particularly if the political transition is prolonged or authorities fail to address key challenges, including the terrorism threat.
Analysts said economic performance hinges on supportive security conditions.
“We project Burkina Faso’s economy will grow an average of 4.4% annually over 2026-2029, driven by increased agricultural and mining activity.
“While the government has pursued sector diversification, structural issues persist, preventing GDP per capita from exceeding $1,400 through 2029.
“Economic performance will be constrained by security risks that have continued to affected the country since 2014”, S&P said.
The rating note acknowledged that Burkina Faso’s political, security, and humanitarian situation is stabilising but remains fragile. The country faces ongoing terrorist attacks, causing significant casualties, and internal displacements.
Efforts in increasing security and defense operational capabilities enabled the army to regain control of 74% of national territory as of December 2025, up from 72% as of July 2025.
The postponement of the planned 2024 elections signal a prolonged transitional period, and recent coup attempts underscore the elevated risk of further instability, in our view.
Nevertheless, analysts anticipate continued reasonably strong economic performance in Burkina Faso. S&P forecasts average growth of 4.4% through 2029, compared with an estimated 5.3% in 2025.
“While manufacturing and services will also contribute to economic growth, we expect it to remain primarily driven by improved operating conditions for the mining and agricultural sectors, particularly gold and cotton, the twin pillars of the economy”.
Burkina Faso remains vulnerable to external shocks, particularly volatile commodity prices for cotton and gold, as well as fluctuating rainfall.
Since 2015, terrorist activity by al-Qaida- and Islamic State-affiliated groups has significantly disrupted economic activity, damaging infrastructure and hindering agricultural production, the latter of which was already exposed to localized droughts.
Attacks on gold mining facilities have increased operating costs and the impact is likely underestimated given the sector’s large component of informal gold mining.
Structural deficiencies, including inadequate infrastructure and a weak business environment, continue to constrain private sector development and fiscal flexibility.
The government is addressing these challenges through strategic support for the primary sector and initiatives to diversify local industry, such as via the Postal Bank of Burkina Faso, a bank that reaches all regions; and Burkinabe Tomato Co., which aims for the country to become self-sufficient in tomatoes.
“We expect increasing government involvement in the mining sector to create uncertainty for investors. The government is strengthening oversight of gold production, processing, and sales through initiatives such as improved local mining-waste management and gold refining”.
Gold production had declined to 58.2 tons in 2022 from 67.1 tons in 2021, due to security risks in mining areas but has recovered since 2023, reaching 90.8 tons in 2025.
“We forecast that total gold production, including artisanal and semimechanized mining, will increase through to 2029. This improvement is primarily driven by a substantial rise in artisanal production, to above 40 tons in 2025 from 7.1 tons in 2024 and an average of 0.3 tons over the prior decade.
“We expect gradual security improvements to enable the reopening of suspended sites, further boosting production. The revised July 2024 mining code increased the state’s obligatory free stake in mining projects to 15% from 10%, and also mandates that companies must make contributions to a national gold reserve”.
In late 2024, Société de Participation Minière du Burkina, the state entity in charge of managing and operating key mining assets, nationalized two mines, and the government is seeking to increase its stake in the Kiaka mine to 40% by the end of 2026 from 15% currently.
Ratings analysts anticipate greater state participation will continue as the government pursues higher mining revenue.
Burkina Faso’s exit from ECOWAS in January 2025 underscores ongoing regional tensions within the bloc. Nevertheless, analysts expect limited economic impact given Burkina Faso’s reliance on WAEMU for its economic framework and monetary policy.
“We anticipate continued strengthening of ties within the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), an economic and security cooperation framework established in July 2024 by Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger”.
All three, which are now run by military regimes, left ECOWAS and set up the AES in lieu. The AES is accelerating the development of the Confederal Bank for Investment and Development to finance critical infrastructure and development projects, reduce reliance on external donors, and mobilize local resources.
The bank’s progress signals a broadening of AES cooperation beyond security toward comprehensive economic integration. Despite limited direct economic consequences for Burkina Faso, the AES’ departure from ECOWAS highlights regional political divisions.
However, we do not foresee Burkina Faso leaving WAEMU, as its economy significantly benefits from the union’s shared currency, pooled foreign exchange reserves, and access to regional capital markets, a commitment reinforced by Burkina Faso’s finance minister assuming the WAEMU Council of Ministers presidency in October 2025.
Analysts said high gold prices and consolidation efforts will prevent significant slips to the twin deficits. “We expect funding options to remain limited largely to regional financing in CFA francs, but continued support from key multilateral partners provides a degree of buffer.
“We project that high gold prices, and revenue-enhancing reforms will help maintain Burkina Faso’s general government deficit at 3.6% of GDP on average through 2029.
“Membership in WAEMU represents an important policy anchor, mitigating balance-of-payments shocks and providing access to regional capital markets”.
Burkina Faso’s 2026-2030 National Development Plan serves as the country’s central strategic framework. The plan repositions the state as a strategic actor and builder, designed to operationalize the long-term orientations of the current government within the framework of the Alliance of Sahel States. Building on lessons from previous plans, it also addresses the ongoing challenges of counterterrorism, forced displacement, and community recovery.
The plan is structured around four pillars covering security and social cohesion, state reform and governance, human capital development, and economic transformation through infrastructure investment, with ambitious targets set for growth, poverty reduction, and expanded electricity capacity.
“We forecast Burkina Faso’s budget deficit will stay near 2025 levels, at an average 3.6% of GDP through 2029. Our forecasts assume the 48-month IMF program runs through 2027 and continues to provide a fiscal policy anchor and bolster investment”.
S&P stated that high security spending will continue to weigh on the budget, resulting in reduced capital expenditure. Despite challenging conditions, the country intends to continue its reform agenda to enhance social protection, public-sector governance, and fiscal policy.
The government is focusing on raising domestic revenue by broadening the tax base and combating fraud and corruption, reflecting a strategic shift toward greater reliance on regional funding rather than donors for budget financing.
On the expenditure side, we expect spending to rise only moderately, since the government is making efforts to optimize expenditure and control the growth of civil service personnel expense, which account for over 40% of tax receipts and exceed the WAEMU average.
Burkina Faso was removed from the Financial Action Task Force’s grey list in October 2025, reflecting progress in improving oversight of its financial institutions.
Ratings analysts anticipate the government will continue to finance its deficits through treasury bill and bond issuances in WAEMU markets.
S&P said as of Dec. 31, 2025, the share of concessional external lending declined to approximately 36% of total government debt from nearly 46% in 2019, while WAEMU financing had increased to 60% from 48%.
Most external foreign currency debt consists of multilateral loans (89.9% of external debt) and bilateral loans (7.6%), with private external commercial debt representing only 2.5% at year-end 2025.
“We expect the proportion of concessional multilateral loans in Burkina Faso’s debt structure to continue decreasing through 2029 as the government increasingly relies on more expensive regional debt markets due to limited external funding options.
“This trend, combined with rising public debt, will maintain interest payments above 10% of revenue through 2029, compared with 8.7% over 2019-2025”.
While elevated, this remains moderate compared with projected levels in some non-WAEMU sub-Saharan countries, such as Nigeria and Ghana.
“We expect continued high gold prices to mitigate external pressures. We forecast Burkina Faso’s current account will shift to a surplus of 1.2% of GDP in 2025, from an estimated deficit of 3.6% in 2024, driven by favorable terms-of-trade developments.”
Gold exports represent approximately 80% of Burkina Faso’s exports, and international prices have increased significantly due to volatile global markets and trade tensions.
S&P Global Ratings now expects gold prices to average $4,500 per ounce in 2026, a substantial increase from our previous forecast of $3,300. “We anticipate gold prices will subsequently decrease, averaging $3,350 over 2027-2028, leading to a widening of current account deficits to about 1.0% of GDP through 2029”.
Burkina Faso faces significant risks from elevated oil and fertilizer prices, given its substantial hydrocarbon import bill, S&P said, noting that a prolonged conflict in Iran could lead to indirect effects, increasing agricultural input costs, reducing harvests, and fueling inflation.
However, the country has taken steps to mitigate supply vulnerabilities, most notably through the acquisition of the Tema multipurpose terminal in Ghana, which provides Société Nationale Burkinabè d’Hydrocarbure with a strategic storage and import hub at a coastal port, although the facility’s utilisation rate remains uncertain.
Political uncertainty and ongoing security challenges will continue to constrain investment. Analysts expect international investors, particularly mining companies, to remain hesitant, leading to a gradual recovery in foreign direct and portfolio investment inflows.
Consequently, Burkina Faso’s external position will remain vulnerable, with high external debt and financing needs relative to its foreign currency income-generating capacity.
However, IMF disbursements under the ECF, averaging approximately $70 million annually over 2024-2027, will help alleviate these financing needs, alongside support from other multilateral partners.
In February 2026, the IMF’s executive board completed the fourth ECF review, enabling a $33.2 million disbursement and bringing total ECF financial support to approximately $165.8 million.
The IMF also approved a new Resilience and Sustainability Facility arrangement, running through September 2027, providing about $124.3 million to strengthen external stability and climate resilience.
Burkina Faso’s membership in the WAEMU limits external volatility and provides policy anchor.
The reserves of the eight member states (Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo) are pooled at the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO), the regional central bank, and all members have full access to this pool, which limits country-specific balance-of-payments shocks.
Additionally, the monetary cooperation framework between WAEMU and France includes an unconditional and unlimited guarantee of convertibility.
This means the French treasury would grant an advance to the BCEAO if the monetary union’s foreign exchange reserves were to be depleted, thereby strengthening the credibility of the CFA franc’s peg to the euro. Burkina Faso benefits from this arrangement, especially because its economy is smaller than that of the zone’s largest markets.
“We project inflation will average 2.1% during 2026-2029, despite risks associated with the conflict in Iran. Inflation fell to negative 0.6% in 2025, driven by strong harvests and lower energy prices”.
This followed a rise to positive 4.2% in 2024, exceeding the BCEAO’s 3.0% target, from 0.7% in 2023 due to challenging climate conditions and higher food prices.
In response, the BCEAO cut its policy rate 25 basis points to 3% in March 2026. However, the conflict in Iran could reverse the region’s easing trend in inflation. Overall, inflation in Burkina Faso has remained lower than in that of other sub-Saharan economies.
