Agriculture, Investment to Drive Morocco’s Economic Growth
Morocco’s economic projection of 4.9% has been further affirmed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) following a discussion by a staff team led by Laura Jaramillo on the 2026 Article IV Consultation.
Ms. Jaramillo said Economic growth in 2025, estimated at 4.9 percent, has been boosted by strong agriculture, construction, and services.
IMF said the momentum is expected to continue in 2026, with growth projected at 4.9 percent, supported by public and private investment and solid agriculture output following exceptional rainfall.
Headline inflation averaged 0.8 percent in 2025, reflecting low food inflation, and is projected to gradually rise toward 2 percent by mid-2027, supported by strengthening growth momentum.
Given the high import content of the scaled-up public investment, the current account deficit is expected to widen moderately, notwithstanding higher tourism receipts, financed in part by higher FDIs.
International reserves levels remain adequate. Risks to the outlook are broadly balanced, with global risks stemming from a potential Euro Area slowdown and commodity price volatility.
It is noted that Moroccan tax revenues reached 24.6 percent of GDP in 2025, a significant increase over the last two years stemming from recent tax policy reforms and improved revenue administration.
The central government deficit narrowed to 3.5 percent of GDP, compared to 3.8 percent projected in the 2025 Budget, even as part of the revenue overperformance financed additional investment and SOE transfers.
“Going forward, at least part of any revenue overperformance should be saved to further strengthen fiscal buffers. Coupled with spending reprioritization, this could also help create space for more investment in human capital.
“Access to education, health services, and social protection for the most vulnerable continues to improve, and staff encourage an acceleration of ongoing reform strategies in these sectors.
“Taking full advantage of the opportunities offered by the acceleration of public investment requires carefully managing risks—including fiscal and economic risks—and ensuring greater investment in human capital, in particular health and education.”
“Staff welcomes the progress in strengthening the medium-term budget framework (MTFF) and public investment management, including steps toward the adoption of a new fiscal rule. Continued efforts are needed to identify, quantify, and monitor fiscal risks systematically—particularly those related to SOEs—with greater reporting in the MTFF.”
“With inflation well anchored, the current broadly neutral monetary policy stance remains appropriate, and monetary policy should continue to be guided by incoming data.
The fund encourages BAM to continue its transition to greater exchange rate flexibility as it progresses toward an inflation targeting (IT) framework, with clear communication on sequencing and priorities between policy objectives.
IMF welcomes BAM’s carefully sequenced non-performing loan reforms and encourages efforts to continue strengthening the financial system’s resilience to emerging risks.”
“Creating sustainable jobs remains a central challenge that calls for reforms that encourage a more dynamic private sector and improve labor market responsiveness.
“In this context, accelerating state-owned enterprises reforms to improve performance and governance is critical to strengthen competition and ensure market neutrality between public and private firms”.
Staff welcomes the more targeted financial and technical assistance to micros, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs)—including through the Investment Charter, regional investment centers, the Mohammed VI Investment Fund, and the new charter for MSMEs—and encourages close monitoring of employment outcomes.
IMF lauds the ongoing implementation of Morocco’s Job Plan 2030, which provides a comprehensive framework to reduce unemployment through modernized active labor market policies and expanded support for youth without diplomas, and encourages complementary measures to address skills mismatches.”
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