Global Oil Supply Surges 2.3mbpd as Gulf Exports Improve
Global oil supply rose by 2.3 million barrels per day (mbpd) in October to 105.36 mb/d, driven by strong Gulf exports despite ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure and tankers, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Friday.
According to the IEA’s October Oil Market Report, output from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers in the OPEC+ group rose by 2.39 mb/d month-on-month to 44.06 mb/d, despite a sharp increase in tanker attacks.
The increase in OPEC+ output was driven by a recovery in supply from the Middle East, led by Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Higher oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and increased shipments via Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline supported the rise in regional supply.
Non-OPEC+ supply, meanwhile, fell by 90,000 barrels per day to 61.3 mb/d. Maintenance at some major oil fields in Brazil and a decline in offshore production in the US due to Hurricane Isaias contributed to the drop in non-OPEC+ supply.
The IEA expects global oil supply to average around 101.6 mb/d this year, down 4.7 mb/d from the previous year. Supply is forecast to rise by around 6.5 mb/d next year to 108.1 mb/d.
According to the IEA report, the projected recovery in global oil supply next year remains fragile due to risks to exports and production posed by attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping in the Middle East.
The IEA estimates that global oil demand will decline by 2.7 mb/d this year to an average of 102.3 mb/d. Demand is expected to continue contracting next year before returning to growth around March. Global oil demand is forecast to reach 104.3 mb/d next year, up by 2 mb/d.
Around 80% of next year’s demand growth is expected to come from LPG, ethane and naphtha as supply chains return to normal.
Transport fuels, meanwhile, are forecast to see only modest growth as high prices accelerate electrification and fuel efficiency across the global vehicle fleet. Global Oil Supply Surges 2.3mbpd as Gulf Exports Improve FCCPC to Monitor Petrol Pump Price as Oil Dips Below $90
