Anthropic’s $2trn IPO Puts AI’s Circular Money Machine on Trial
The AI boom is being financed in a loop, and Anthropic’s blockbuster listing is about to hand that loop to ordinary investors, warns the CEO of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations.
Nigel Green’s comments made available to MarketForces Africa come as Anthropic heads towards a Nasdaq debut that could value it at up to $2 trillion, while one independent research house puts its worth at just $150 billion and brands it the “most ridiculous IPO” of 2026.
The gulf between ambition and accounts is vast. A leaked copy of the prospectus shows Anthropic generated $4.6 billion of revenue in 2025 while posting a net loss of $42 billion.
To justify a $2 trillion price, the research house, New Constructs, estimates the company would need to earn around double the trailing annual profit of Nvidia, the world’s most valuable tech company, which topped $190 billion.
He says: “A $2 trillion valuation on $4.6 billion of revenue asks investors to pay today for a future where almost everything goes right. “And a large share of the demand propping up that future is circulating between the same handful of players.
“For example, Nvidia invests in AI developers. Developers spend the money on Nvidia chips and computing power. Nvidia books it as revenue. Every turn of the wheel looks like growth.”
Anthropic sits right at the centre. It has signed up to spend $518 billion on AI infrastructure, including up to $84.5 billion of computing capacity from SpaceX through 2029.
SpaceX builds its AI data centres exclusively with hardware from Nvidia, which holds a stake of nearly $21 billion in the company, and it reportedly now seeks $40 billion, mostly through bonds, to buy more of those chips.
Nigel Green continues: “Follow the cash around the circle. Nvidia money goes into SpaceX. SpaceX borrows to buy Nvidia chips. Anthropic rents the computing power, and SpaceX books the rent as AI revenue.
“Then Anthropic arrives on public markets carrying a valuation partly built on the growth those same arrangements generate.
“Some of this demand is genuine and powerful. The question nobody can yet answer with confidence is how much of it is the same dollars doing laps.”
Borrowing is increasingly filling the gap. For the first time, the capital spending of the five largest hyperscalers is set to exceed their combined operating cash flow, and debt has climbed from 9% of their capex in fiscal 2024 to 32% by mid 2026.
The Bank of England now warns that rising indebtedness, opacity and “circular arrangements” in AI financing could amplify losses if expectations disappoint.
The deVere CEO adds: “These were some of the most cash generative companies in history. “Now they’re borrowing to keep building while financing their own customers to keep the orders coming.
“You’ve got leverage stacked on leverage, with the same names on both sides of the table.
“A listing of this size flows into global trackers, pension schemes and funds held by millions of people who never chose to back a loss making AI lab.
“If the loop slows, the pain won’t land on the backers who’ve already cashed out. It’ll land on everyone who came in at the top.” He points to the turn of the century, when telecoms suppliers lent heavily to customers so they could keep buying equipment.
“Sales soared, valuations soared, and then the buyers ran out of road,” says Nigel Green.
“The technology changed the world. Investors still lost fortunes, because the money holding the boom up kept going round in circles until it stopped.”
The deVere CEO concludes: “Brilliant technology and a sound valuation are two very different things, and the price paid decides which one investors end up owning.
“At $2 trillion, the circle has to spin faster forever. Circles rarely manage it.”
