Nigeria’s Foreign Reserves Near $51bn, Highest Since Jan. 2009
Nigeria’s gross foreign reserves surged near $51 billion, driven by significant inflows from oil receipts, remittances, and other related dollar inflow sources.
According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data on FX movements, gross external reserves increased to $50.813 billion, up from $50.505 billion last week, while the market anticipates further inflows this week.
With the pace of growth recorded in the first half of 2026, market analysts anticipated gross external reserves would likely close the first half above $51 billion.
Nigeria’s external reserves closed 2025 at $45.505 billion, representing an increase of about $5 billion in the first half of the year. The significant FX boost was driven by hydrocarbon sales, elevated oil prices, and Nigeria’s increased production volume.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed that Nigeria’s total crude oil production, including condensates, increased by approximately 2.2% month-on-month to 1.70 million barrels per day (mbpd) in May, compared with 1.66mbpd in April.
Excluding condensates, crude oil output rose to about 1.53 mbpd from 1.49 mbpd in the preceding month, analysts at CSL Stockbrokers said in a commentary note.
The investment firm said the improvement was largely driven by the absence of major facility maintenance activities, pipeline vandalism, and significant crude oil theft during the period.
This marks a notable contrast to February, when total production declined by roughly 8.8% month-on-month to 1.48mbpd following the temporary shutdown of the Bonga facility for maintenance.
Analysts at CSL Stockbrokers said sustained production levels around 1.70mbpd should continue to support crude export volumes, providing a positive boost to Nigeria’s current account position and external reserves.
Nevertheless, despite the recent improvement in output, analysts believe it remains unlikely that authorities will achieve their target of raising average production to 1.84mbpd this year. As a result, fiscal oil revenues are likely to remain below budget assumptions.
“Although crude oil prices are currently trading at their highest levels in more than four years, which should strengthen oil export receipts, the benefit is expected to be partly offset by lower-than-budgeted production volumes and the appreciation of the Naira this year”, CSL Stockbrokers said in its review note.
The investment firm said while oil revenues should exceed last year’s net fiscal oil receipts, they are still likely to fall short of budget projections.
Looking ahead, analysts said sentiment towards the oil sector remains constructive, supported by expectations of sustained production growth over the medium term following recent industry reforms.
Nigeria’s oil industry regulator announced that the 2026 oil licensing round will commence in the third quarter, with investor interest expected to be strong following measures aimed at reducing entry barriers.
“ We anticipate additional progress in the coming months on the planned US$20 billion deepwater oil project being developed by Shell.
“The project, which is currently progressing towards a Final Investment Decision (FID), is estimated to contain approximately 820 million barrels of recoverable reserves and could reach peak production of around 220,000 barrels per day.
“If executed as planned, the development would provide a significant boost to Nigeria’s long-term oil production capacity and strengthen the country’s position as a leading oil producer in Africa”, CSL Stockbrokers saidsaid. Naira Pulls Back as External Reserves Draw Down Hits $1.4bn
