Fitch Affirms Côte d’Ivoire Rating at ‘BB’, Outlook Stable
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Côte d’Ivoire’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at ‘BB’ with a stable outlook. Cote d’Ivoire’s ‘BB’ ratings reflect strong and broad-based GDP growth, sound fiscal management and solid macroeconomic policies, illustrated by a long record of low inflation and strong engagement with the IMF.
These strengths are balanced against the country’s low per capita income and governance scores relative to category peers, as well as high interest-to-revenue and government debt ratios, albeit both are on a declining trajectory.
Fitch forecasts real GDP growth at 6.3% in 2026 with broad-based expansion across primary, secondary and tertiary sectors, following 6.5% in 2025 and well above the projected ‘BB’ median of 3.6%.
“We have slightly revised our forecast down, primarily reflecting spillovers from the Middle East conflict. The terms of trade impact is expected to be small as Cote d’Ivoire is an exporter of both crude oil and gold”.
The medium-term growth trajectory is supported by a well-defined pipeline of extractive projects, notably the recent confirmation of Baleine field third phase, which is expected to bring the Baleine field’s total oil production to 150,000 bpd from 2029, the Calao gas field discovery, and expected rising mining output.
Combined with high levels of public and private investment and an increasingly diversified economy, these developments reinforce Fitch’s view that Côte d’Ivoire will sustain its current pace of growth through at least the early 2030s.
Fitch projects the deficit to widen to 3.5% in 2026, reflecting lower fuel tax revenues, expected temporary measures to shield consumers from the global energy price shock and some pressure on growth-sensitive revenues.
The authorities’ record of fiscal consolidation underpins our expectation of a return below the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) ceiling by 2028, with or without the anchor of a new IMF programme.
Cote d’Ivoire met the WAEMU 3% convergence ceiling in 2025 for the first time in three years, recording a central government deficit of 3.0% of GDP.
Total revenues reached 17.0% of GDP, up from 16.1% in 2024, reflecting continued revenue mobilisation measures on VAT administration, property tax reform and anti-fraud measures.
Fitch estimates that government debt stood at 56.4% of GDP at end of 2025, down from 59.5% in 2024. Fitch projects a further decline in 2026-2027 converging toward the ‘BB’ median of 53.2%, despite the modest fiscal slippage expected.
The country’s interest-to-revenue ratio is expected to ease to around 14.8% in 2026 as funding costs moderate, although it will remain well above the ‘BB’ median of 11%.
Fitch said authorities have continued to diversify the investor base and extend maturities, including by issuing a USD1.3 billion 15-year Eurobond in February 2026 and placing a local-currency sovereign bond in international markets in 2025.
Ratings analysts forecast a temporary rebound of inflation within the 1-3% Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) target band from May 2026 following the adjustment of fuel prices, before easing back toward 2.0% in 2027 as pass-through effects recede.
This follows the 0.1% inflation reached at the end of 2025, anchored by the CFA franc peg and administered consumer prices. The BCEAO has cut its policy rate by a cumulative 50bp since June 2025 to 3%, and Fitch expects a pause in the easing cycle in the near term.
“We forecast a moderate widening of the current account deficit in 2026 to 3.5% of GDP, as higher import costs weigh on the trade balance, while lower cocoa prices are projected to offset gains from rising oil production and prices on the export side.
“This follows a narrowing of the current account deficit to an estimated 0.8% of GDP in 2025, driven by strong export performance across cocoa, crude oil, cashew, rubber and gold2, Fitch said.
Regional Reserves Improve Markedly: WAEMU pooled foreign exchange reserves rose to USD48 billion in April 2026, equivalent to approximately eight months of regional import coverage, up from 3.8 months in 2024.
Cote d’Ivoire’s contribution to this improvement has been significant, reflecting its diversified export base and strong external financing inflows.
Senegal’s debt crisis poses some risk to the broader WAEMU, but Fitch does not expect it to affect Cote d’Ivoire’s rating, as broader market contagion risks to the banking sector are limited.
Ivorian banks appear to be the largest buyers of Senegalese securities in regional auction data, but actual balance sheet exposure is much lower than the raw figures suggest, as intermediaries based in Côte d’Ivoire regularly purchase securities on behalf of other WAEMU and foreign investors.
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