Rand Slides as World Bank Cuts South Africa’s 2026 GDP Growth
The South African rand slid against major currencies as the World Bank reduced its estimate of the country’s 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
The rand is trading at R16.29 against the US dollar, R18.85 against the euro, and R21.84 against the sterling – broadly resilient relative to yesterday’s session, First National Bank said in a brief.
The rand declined against majors on Thursday as the market reacted negatively to the GDP growth outlook report. The World Bank cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast for South Africa to 1.0% from 1.4%, citing higher energy prices and Middle East-driven inflationary pressures.
Meanwhile, the local currency is drawing support from growing optimism around a potential US-Iran peace deal, which has lifted risk appetite across emerging markets (EM) and eased oil-driven inflation fears.
The bank said the rand has remained comparatively stable against peers during this period of geopolitical uncertainty, outperforming its typical behaviour in prior emerging-market risk-off episodes.
Reflecting easing tensions between the US and Iran, oil prices nosedived on Friday as the market anticipated a potential agreement that could restore peace to the Middle East.
Brent crude is trading near $88.71 per barrel, extending Thursday’s decline of nearly 3% to its lowest close in two months. The sell-off is being driven by President Donald Trump’s announcement that the US is nearing a peace agreement with Iran.
Gold is holding near $4193.71 per ounce, consolidating after surging 3.4% in Thursday’s session, which was its biggest single-day advance since March.
The metal’s strength was also driven by a softer dollar and safe-haven demand amid intensifying US-Iran tensions mid-week, as investors sought protection against geopolitical risk and rising inflation.
On the domestic data front, the South African Reserve Bank released 1Q26 current account data showing a surplus well above the consensus estimate and the largest since 2022, driven by a surge in gold export values and a drop in imports.
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