Naira Depreciates as Stiff FX Inflow Keeps Local Unit on Edge
The naira depreciated against the US dollar on Monday at the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) as FX inflow remained stiff.
The local currency extends its losing streak, closing at N1373 .70 per dollar, according to the CBN’s daily FX publication, up from N1371 last week. Though the market recorded a liquidity surge signal, demand for foreign payments, however, outweighed the supply side strength.
During the trading session, FX transactions were consummated at the official window between an intraday high of N1374.5000 and an intraday low of N1370 per dollar, according to the FX update released by the authority on Monday.
The exchange rate peaked at N1375 over the last 10 trading sessions due to fluctuating FX inflows and rising demand for foreign payments from eligible market participants.
Interbank FX turnover increased sharply from the previous week, reaching close to $76.296 million across 92 deals on Monday, from $48.487 million last week.
The naira spot exchange rate declined to N1390 per dollar in the parallel market, reflecting broad-based selling pressure on the local currency across both the official and informal currency trading segments.
Analysts at Cowry Asset Management Limited expect the naira to remain under pressure in the near term due to sustained FX demand and limited liquidity, despite a modest rise in external reserves.
The investment firm noted in a commentary note that while higher crude oil prices provide some support through improved export earnings, they remain volatile and largely driven by geopolitical tensions.
Analysts said the nation’s external position is likely to stay fragile, with the naira continuing to trade within a weak and volatile range absent stronger FX inflows or policy support.
The April 2026 Oil Production Status Report released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) indicates a sustained rebound in Nigeria’s crude oil output.
Average daily production rose 7.6% month-on-month (m/m) to 1.49 million barrels per day (mbpd), representing an increase of 105,697 barrels from the 1.38 mbpd recorded in March 2026.
This represents the highest crude oil output recorded so far in 2026 and marks the second consecutive monthly increase, following the production dip in February caused by turnaround maintenance on the Bonga Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel.
Including condensates, total oil production rose to 1.66 mbpd in April, up from 1.55 mbpd in March 2026, as condensate production increased to 174,873 barrels per day, up from 163,251 bpd in the previous month.
Overall daily oil production (crude oil and condensates) ranged between 1.46 mbpd and 1.85 mbpd during the month.
The sustained improvement in April’s crude oil production reflects several positive developments, including the continued decline in crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism, the recovery in output from terminals that recently underwent turnaround maintenance, and increased production from new upstream additions.
Notably, the Cawthorne stream boosted production to 929,055 barrels in April, up sharply from 382,689 barrels when production was first recorded in January 2026.
Analysts expect Nigeria’s crude oil production to improve modestly in 2026, averaging around 1.71 mbpd, compared to 1.64 mbpd in 2025. However, this remains below the Federal Government’s production target of 2.06 mbpd for 2026. Nigeria Eurobonds Yield Climbs as Inflation Shifts Sentiment
