Investment Firms Project Higher Inflation Rate for April
Nigeria’s headline inflation is projected to climb as Middle East tensions drive global oil prices higher, pushing petrol pump prices to about N1,400 on average.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is scheduled to release the consumer price index figures for April today, and Broadstreet agrees on a further surge after the March reading. ,Coronation Merchant Bank said in its pre-inflation brief that geopolitical oil shock that defined the March inflation release has not faded.
Brent crude has held at an average of $127.45/bbl through April as U.S.–Israel–Iran tensions and intermittent Strait of Hormuz disruptions sustain a structural risk premium above the March average of $105.41.
For Nigeria, the transmission to domestic prices runs through higher PMS prices, which surged to an average of N1,322.50 in April from N1,208.38 in March, a 9.44% increase, as marketers complete the gantry repricing cycle that began in March.
The transport sub-index, which accelerated sharply to 16.9% y/y in March from 14.2% in February, should further increase in April as the second-round adjustments to fares, logistics, and intra-city haulage rates feed through.
Analysts expect Nigeria’s consumer price index to worsen for the second month in a row, a trend that will persist for a while to capture the full effects of pressures on household and corporate spending.
Though investment firms agree that headline inflation will surge, their projections differ greatly. In its pre-inflation briefing. Meristem Securities Limited projects April headline inflation at 15.89% year-on-year.
However, at Coronation Merchant Bank, headline CPI inflation for April 2026 is projected to print at 15.95% year on year and 2.35% month on month.
Investment firms said this would mark the second consecutive month of upward movement in the year-on-year rate, extending the cycle reversal that began in March 2026 after eleven straight months of disinflation.
On a month-on-month basis, Meristem Securities expects a softer 2.35% counts versus 4.18% in March, reflecting continued food price firmness, offset by a cooling in the monthly inflation momentum as the March energy price shock partially unwinds.
The firm said the projected 2.35% m/m print signals a return toward the underlying disinflation trajectory and could be a pivotal data point in shaping the monetary policy committee deliberations at the next policy meeting.
April 2026 Nigeria’s headline inflation paused its eleven-month disinflation trend in March 2026, rising by 15.38% YoY from 15.06% in February, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
This uptick was driven by increases in both food and core inflation. Food inflation surged to 14.31% YoY in March 2026 from 12.12% YoY in February, driven by rising logistics costs and the tightening seasonal supply of staples such as peppers and tomatoes.
Meanwhile, core inflation increased for the first time in nine months to 16.21% YoY as against 15.88% YoY in February 2026, underpinned by strong increases in Restaurant & Accommodation Services, which climbed to 25.17% YoY from 17.02% YoY, and Transport surged to16.89% YoY from 14.70% YoY components, due to higher fuel costs.
The trajectory of price pressures was mixed in April 2026, with broad food price movements tilting slightly downwards. According to Meristem Commodities Price Tracker, some key staples such as maize, paddy rice, and soya bean recorded price declines, partly due to the normalisation of demand after the Ramadan and Easter festivities.
Nonetheless, price pressures remained in categories such as sesame and sorghum during the month, reflecting ongoing supply chain disruptions and elevated transportation costs.
Domestic fuel prices remained elevated in April and increased further, particularly at the start of the month, following the upward adjustment of depot PMS prices by the Dangote Refinery from NGN1,200/litre to NGN1,275/litre.
This increase is expected to exert additional pressure on transportation and energy costs, with potential spillover effects on inflation. On the positive side, the Naira appreciated by 1.42% month on month in April, averaging NGN1,361.51/USD at the official window compared with NGN1,381.18/USD in March.
Analysts said this appreciation could help moderate imported inflation by lowering the cost of FX-dependent goods and imports. Against this backdrop, we expect headline inflation to rise further year on year in April, driven by sustained increases in both core and food inflation.
Persistent fuel price pressures are likely to keep transportation and energy-related costs elevated, contributing to higher annual core inflation. Food inflation is also expected to increase annually, reflecting higher logistics and distribution costs.
However, month-on-month inflationary pressures are likely to ease, supported by the high base recorded in March and relatively more contained energy price movements compared to the previous month. Zambia Progresses, Rebuilds Foreign Reserves, Tames Inflation -IMF
