AI-Related Capital Goods Keeps U.S. Imports High Despite Tariffs
The U.S. trade position is evolving in response to significant tariff policy actions in 2025, with the main adjustment occurring in import composition rather than in the aggregate balance, according to Fitch Ratings.
Goods imports remain the main driver of current-account dynamics, and the U.S. goods trade deficit remains large, as AI-related capital spending continues to support imports even as broader goods demand weakens.
“Tariffs are moving supply chains, not meaningfully shrinking the U.S. trade gap,” said Olu Sonola, Head of U.S. Economics at Fitch Ratings.
“The real story is that AI demand is propping up technology-related imports even as much of the rest of the goods basket weakens. In our view, this is a reshuffling of import dependence rather than a decisive reduction in the trade deficit position.”
Capital goods remained a key source of support through 2025 and into early 2026. Fitch said on a three-month average annualized basis, total capital goods imports rose 28 % between February 2025 and February 2026, driven overwhelmingly by computers, telecoms and semiconductors, which increased 71% over the same period.
By contrast, the rest of capital goods combined fell about 5%, indicating that import strength was highly concentrated in technology-related categories.
Weakness across the rest of the import basket was much broader. Between February 2025 and February 2026, total imports fell 11%, led by declines in consumer goods, industrial materials, autos and parts, and foods and beverages.
Country sourcing patterns also shifted decisively, with China’s share of U.S. imports falling sharply as Taiwan, Vietnam and Mexico gained share. Exports continue to provide only a partial offset, leaving the broader goods trade deficit substantially negative. Access Holdings Says Regulator Blocks 2025 Dividend Payment
