Nigeria’s Headline Inflation Projected at 13.48%
The headline inflation rate is projected to settle at 13.48% year on year for February 2026, on account of the consumer price index (CPI) easing further amid the energy crisis. The market anticipates that the statistics office will release the February inflation figures this week.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported last month that headline inflation extended its downward trend, falling for the 10th consecutive month to 15.10% YoY in January 2026, from 15.15% YoY in December 2025.
Food inflation moderated to 8.89% year on year from 10.84%, driven by a high post-harvest supply of agricultural produce such as cassava and lower logistics costs.
Also, core inflation slowed to 17.72% year on year from 18.63%, supported by easing in Clothing & Footwear, Furnishings, Household Equipment, and Routine Household Maintenance.
In February 2026, price pressures resurfaced as anticipated, fueled by increased demand from stockpiling and reduced productivity during Ramadan.
In a report, Meristem Securities Limited said the commodities price tracker showed rising prices for staples, halting months-long declines in staples like maize (+4.05% MoM) and sorghum (+0.57% MoM).
Paddy rice and Soya beans posted stronger price increases, up +1.09% MoM and +21.24% MoM, respectively (vs. +0.09% MoM and +7.94% MoM previously).
In contrast, PMS prices eased slightly in February after Dangote Refinery cut its ex-depot price by NGN25 per litre to NGN774 from NGN799 in January. This should help moderate transportation and energy costs within the core index.
Additionally, analysts noted that the Naira appreciated by 4.32% MoM in February, averaging NGN1,355.34/USD in the official window, from NGN1,416.52/USD in January. The stronger currency should also help lower import costs and ease FX exposed components in the core index.
Furthermore, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s approval for BDC operators to purchase dollars from the official window helped narrow the spread between the official and parallel FX markets and strengthened the parallel market rate.
“This could help moderate core inflation, as importers unable to access FX officially can source dollars at closer rates in the parallel market.
“Based on our analysis, we expect annual headline inflation to decline further in February, supported by relatively contained core price pressures”, Meristem Securities said.
The firm anticipates core inflation to remain on a downward trend year on year, supported by cheaper fuel prices and the stronger Naira. Analysts added that the index could stabilise month-on-month rather than contract further.
Food inflation, however, may edge higher month on month, as Ramadan-related stockpiling and reduced farming activities push up prices of key staples, thereby exerting upward pressure on monthly headline inflation.
“… we project January’s headline inflation at 13.48% year on year”, Meristem Securities Limited projected. Excess Liquidity: Banks’ Placements at SDF Window Hit N6trn
