Oil Prices Surge Week-on-Week over Heightened Uncertainties
Oil prices rose this week as investors priced in heightened uncertainties surrounding the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and growing geopolitical risks linked to developments in Venezuela, Iran and Cuba, which raised concerns over potential supply disruptions.
International benchmark Brent crude traded at $64.04 per barrel, up 1.56% from last Friday’s close of $62.74. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 1.59% to $59.76 per barrel, compared with $58.61 a week earlier.
Prices gained early in the week on expectations that the Fed could move toward interest rate cuts, weakening the US dollar and supporting commodity prices.
Market uncertainty deepened after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the US Department of Justice had threatened criminal charges related to the renovation of Fed buildings, a move he said was connected to the central bank’s monetary policy decisions.
Former Fed officials described the reported investigation as an unprecedented challenge to the Fed’s institutional independence, while analysts said the debate over central bank autonomy has provided short-term support to oil prices despite broader economic uncertainty.
Geopolitical developments in Venezuela were a key driver of higher prices. A US military operation on Jan. 3 resulted in the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, raising fears of disruptions to oil production and exports from the South American country.
US President Donald Trump said his administration would oversee Venezuela and its oil assets during a transition period and signaled plans to purchase Venezuelan crude, while also criticizing ExxonMobil’s reluctance to invest.
Analysts said the mixed signals reinforced perceptions of political and commercial risk, limiting expectations for foreign investment and medium- to long-term supply growth.
Regional tensions increased further after Trump announced that Cuba would no longer receive oil or financial support from Venezuela, ending a long-standing arrangement and adding to uncertainty in the Caribbean energy market.
Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel rejected US criticism, blaming Washington for the island’s economic hardships and warning that Havana remains prepared to defend its sovereignty.
Oil prices also found support from renewed Iran-related supply risks. Reports that Trump had been briefed on options beyond conventional air strikes against Iran, including cyber and psychological operations, heightened geopolitical risk perceptions.
Trump’s warning that countries trading with Iran would face a 25% tariff further increased market uncertainty, while analysts warned that escalating tensions in the Middle East could threaten supply from a region holding a significant share of global oil reserves.
Although gains were capped later in the week by signs of rising US crude and gasoline inventories, analysts said geopolitical risk premiums and uncertainty over US monetary policy remained the dominant factors driving oil prices higher. Naira Sees Market-Wide Rally as FX Users Price in Projections
