Nigeria Posts Trade Surplus for 12 Qs as FX Earnings Rise
Nigeria maintained 12 consecutive quarters (12 Qs) of trade surplus in Q3-2025, supported by higher export earnings—especially from crude oil—despite a slight decline in surplus compared to Q2.
Imports remained elevated due to continued reliance on foreign goods, even as mineral imports declined with increased local refining output from Dangote Refinery, AIICO Capital Limited said in a commentary note.
According to Nigerian statistics office, Asia remained Nigeria’s main import source, while Europe was the largest destination for exports.
Particularly, AIICO Capital Limited said a positive trade balance has supported the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) effort in strengthening the naira by boosting foreign exchange inflows.
In Q3, the currency faces less pressure due to higher crude oil export, and less import of refined crude oil products driven by Dangote Refinery.
As a result, the gains from the surplus supported by Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) strengthened the naira to N1,475.35 per USD which had hit N1,529.71 per dollar in Q2 and support the overall macroeconomic stability
The persistent rise in Nigeria’s total merchandise trade since 2019, alongside consistent growth in trade surplus, underscores the impact of ongoing FX market reforms, greater trade liberalisation, and currency adjustments that have sharpened export competitiveness and encouraged backward integration across industries, Cowry Asset Limited said in a note.
The firm said the widening trade surplus is expected to feed positively into the current account balance, improving Nigeria’s external position and providing fundamental support for the value of the domestic currency in the medium term
Nigeria’s latest foreign trade report from the National Bureau of Statistics shows a continued strengthening in the country’s external sector, with total merchandise trade rising by 11.41% year on-year to N112.99 trillion in the first nine months of 2025, up from N101.43 trillion a year earlier.
The growth was driven largely by stronger export performance, helped by a relatively weak naira that made Nigerian goods more attractive in the global market.
Exports climbed 15.21% year-on-year to N66.16 trillion from N57.43 trillion in the same period of 2024, comfortably outpacing imports, which rose by 6.45% to N46.84 trillion from N44.00 trillion.
This dynamic pushed the trade surplus sharply higher by 43.93%, reaching N19.33 trillion compared with N13.43 trillion last year. In the third quarter alone, total trade stood at N38.94 trillion, an 8.71% increase over the N35.82 trillion recorded in Q3 2024 and a modest 2.36% rise from N38.04 trillion in Q2 2025.
Exports accounted for 58.59% of total trade, amounting to N22.81 trillion which is an 11.08% improvement from a year earlier and slightly higher than Q2’s N22.75 trillion. Crude oil remained the backbone of Nigeria’s external sector, totalling N12.81 trillion and representing 56.14% of total exports.
Non-crude exports contributed N10.01 trillion, with non-oil products making up N2.99 trillion, or 13.14% of the export basket. Imports made up 41.41% of total trade in Q3, valued at N16.12 trillion.
This represented a 5.51% increase from N15.28 trillion in Q3 2024 and a 5.47% rise from N15.27 trillion in Q2 2025. The merchandise trade balance remained firmly positive at N6.69 trillion, although it reflected a 10.36% decline from the previous quarter.
Mineral fuels dominated imports at N5.15 trillion or 31.97% of the total, followed by machinery and transport equipment at N4.25 trillion and chemicals at N2.35 trillion. Asia retained its position as Nigeria’s leading import source, supplying N8.11 trillion worth of goods, or 50.30% of total imports.
This was followed by the Americas, Europe, and much smaller inflows from Oceania and Africa. China remained Nigeria’s single largest import partner, accounting for N4.78 trillion, or 29.68% of overall imports.
On the export side, mineral products dominated with N20.01 trillion, accounting for 87.71% of total exports and far ahead of chemicals at N845.00 billion and food and beverage-related products at N692.32 billion.
Europe was the top regional export destination at N8.71 trillion, followed by Asia, America, and Africa. Within Africa, ECOWAS continued to play a central role, absorbing 63.96% of the continent-bound exports.
India stood out as Nigeria’s largest single export destination at N2.26 trillion, followed by Spain, France, the Netherlands, and Italy, collectively accounting for 38.34% of all exports in the quarter.
Nigeria also maintained strong trade activity within Africa, exporting N4.90 trillion worth of goods while importing N595.00 billion. Ivory Coast, Ghana, South Africa, Togo, and Senegal accounted for the bulk of Nigeria’s exports to the continent.
The top products to African partners were dominated by crude petroleum oils, motor spirit, gas oil, marine vessels, and jet fuel, which together represented over 86% of exports to Africa. Across key product categories, trade flows showed mixed patterns.
Agricultural imports rose sharply to N1.10 trillion, while agricultural exports declined to N786.62 billion. Raw material imports surged by 27.70% to N2.01 trillion, while raw material exports grew even faster, up 136.38% year-on-year to N1.04 trillion.
Solid mineral exports expanded strongly, rising to N100.81 billion, while manufactured goods imports increased modestly to N7.77 trillion. Crude oil exports dipped 4.47% year-on-year but rose quarter-on-quarter, and other oil product exports surged 51.72% year-on-year to N7.01 trillion. CBN Rejects N1.3 trn OMO Bills Subscription from Investors
