Nigeria’s Oil, Gas Income Declines by 43% to N1.08trn

Nigeria’s Oil, Gas Income Declines by 43% to N1.08trn

Nigeria’s income from crude and gas sales fell by 43 per cent, accounting for only about 8 per cent of total oil and gas revenue, despite a rebound in oil production, according to figures from the latest Budget Implementation Report for the fourth quarter of 2024 released by the Budget Office of the Federation.

Oil revenue fell by ₦824.66 billion to ₦1.08 trillion during the year, from ₦ 1.90 trillion in 2023, representing a 43.32 per cent decline in the year under review.

The decrease in revenue highlights a drift toward taxes and royalties as the dominant contributors. Petroleum Profit Tax and Company Income Tax brought in ₦6 trillion, while royalties generated ₦6.99 trillion — nearly triple the previous year, aided by improved compliance and changes under the Petroleum Industry Act.

Total oil and gas revenue before deductions stood at ₦15.07tn in 2024, against a budget of ₦19.99tn. This means that actual inflows fell short of the budget by ₦4.93tn or 24.65 per cent.

Gas-flaring penalties rose to ₦391.26 billion, up 178% from 2023. Incidental revenue from royalty recovery and marginal-field settlements also more than doubled, while pipeline-fee income increased to ₦35.2 billion.

One of the largest boosts came from exchange-rate gains, which surged to ₦4.24 trillion from ₦791.88 billion in 2023 following currency liberalisation.

After deductions, net oil revenue stood at ₦12.95 trillion — below the ₦16.98 trillion target but significantly higher than the ₦4.82 trillion recorded in 2023.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission reported that crude oil production rose to 442.21 million barrels in 2024, up 12.6 per cent from 2023. Daily average production increased to 1.43 million barrels per day from 1.27 million barrels.

Production recovered in the second half of the year, reaching 1.49 million barrels per day in December, the highest of 2024. Total liquids — crude and condensates — amounted to 492.34 million barrels, up from 451.09 million barrels in 2023.

Despite the gains, output reached only about 80 per cent of the government’s projection. Analysts attribute the shortfall to ongoing infrastructure constraints, crude theft, and underinvestment.

Compared with the previous year’s total of ₦8.36trn, however, oil and gas inflows almost doubled, showing an 80.33 per cent improvement. The year-on-year increase was largely driven by stronger receipts from royalties, penalties, and exchange rate gains following the unification of the naira, rather than from higher crude export volumes.

The quarterly pattern showed that oil receipts rose from ₦3.35trn in the first quarter to ₦3.91trn in the fourth quarter, but remained consistently below the projected quarterly average of ₦4.99trn.

Incidental oil revenue from royalty recovery and marginal field settlements climbed to ₦347.75b from ₦155.99b a year earlier, a growth of 122.93 per cent, while miscellaneous income, mainly from pipeline fees, increased to ₦35.2b from ₦16.38b.

One of the most significant contributors to the apparent growth in oil revenue was the exchange-rate gain, which soared to ₦4.24trn in 2024 from ₦791.88b in 2023—an increase of over 435 per cent.

The surge followed the naira’s steep depreciation after exchange rate liberalisation, which inflated dollar-denominated oil earnings when converted into local currency.

After accounting for all deductions, the net oil revenue for 2024 stood at ₦12.95trn, against a budget target of ₦16.98trn, a difference of ₦4.03trn or 23.74 per cent. When compared with the ₦4.82trn realised in 2023, the 2024 outcome represents a 168.83 per cent increase. Bank Failure: NDIC Laws Now Stronger to Prosecute Parties at Fault–MD