Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Rises to 15.15%, Beats Expectations

Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Rises to 15.15%, Beats Expectations

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose to 15.15 per cent in December 2025, the statistics office said in a new release in Abuja on Thursday.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicates that the consumer price index (CPI) reversed its 8-month downward trend, settling at 15.15% in December from 14.45% in the previous month.

The number is in sharp contrast to Broadstreet analysts’ projections. The market had anticipated a fast and furious inflation surge due to year-end spending and base effects.

In a statement, the Statistician-General (S-G), Adeyemi Adeniran, disclosed that the CPI rose to 131.2 per cent in December 2025 and reflected a 0.7-point increase from November 2025.

“The headline inflation rate for December 2025 stood at 15.15 per cent, using a 12-month index reference period where 2024 is equated to 100.”

He said that on a month-on-month basis,  the headline inflation rate in December 2025 was 0.54 per cent, which was 0.68 per cent lower than the rate recorded in November 2025 at 1.22 per cent.

“This means that in December 2025, the rate of increase in the average price level was lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in November  2025.”

Adenran said that the three major contributors to the headline inflation year- on- year were food and non-alcoholic beverages at 6.06 per cent, restaurants and accommodation services at 1.96 per cent, and transport at 1.62 per cent.

He said that the least contributors were recreation, sports, and culture at 0.05 per cent, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and narcotics at  0.05 per cent, and insurance and financial services at 0.07 per cent.

According to him, food inflation rate in December 2025 was 10.84  per cent on a year-on-year basis. He said that on a month-on-month basis,  the food inflation rate in December  was -0.36 per cent, which decreased by 1.49 per cent compared to the 1.13 per cent recorded in November 2025.

Adeniran attributed the decrease in food inflation on a month- on- month basis to the decrease in the average prices of tomatoes, garri, eggs, potatoes, carrots, millet, and vegetables.

“Others are Plantain, Beans, Wheat Grain, Grounded Pepper, and Onions, among others.

“On a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate was 0.58 per cent in December, which decreased by 0.7 per cent compared to the 1.28  per cent recorded in November 2025.”

The S-G said that the inflation rate of the sub-indices for December 2025 showed that only energy increased significantly to 2.74 per cent, while other indices decreased.

“Farm produce rate was -0.41 per cent, services stood at 0.15 per cent and goods at 0.64 per cent.”

He said that on a year-on-year basis, in December 2025, the urban inflation rate was 14.85 per cent.

“On a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate was 0.99 per cent, which increased by 0.04  per cent compared to November at 0.95  per cent.”

Adeniran said that in December, rural inflation rate was 14.56  per cent on a year-on-year basis.

“On a month-on-month basis, the rural inflation rate was -0.55  per cent, which decreased  by 2.43 per cent compared to November at 1.88 per cent.”

On states’ profile analysis, he said that in December, the all-items index inflation rate on a year-on-year basis was highest in Abia at 19.03 per cent.

According to him, it was followed by Ogun at 18.80 per cent , and Katsina at 18.66 per cent.

Adeniran said that the lowest  rise in headline inflation on a year-on-year basis was recorded in Sokoto at 8.61 per cent, followed by  Plateau at 9.05 per cent and Kaduna at 10.38 per cent.

He, however, said that in December 2025, the inflation rate on a month-on-month basis was highest in Cross River at 3.11 per cent, followed by  Abia at 2.63 per cent and Delta at 2.53 per cent.

“Ondo at -3.74 per cent , followed by Gombe at -3.02 per cent  and Jigawa at -1.96 per cent and  Plateau at -2.54 per cent, recorded a decline  in month-on-month inflation.”

Adeniran  said that on a year-on-year basis, food inflation was highest in Yobe at 15.25 per cent, followed by Ogun at 14.12 per cent, and Abuja  at 13.24 per cent.

“Akwa Ibom  at 4.34 per cent, followed by Sokoto at 4.62  per cent and Plateau at 6.19 per cent recorded the slowest rise in food inflation on a year-on-year basis.’’

However, he said that on a month-on-month basis, food inflation was highest in Imo at 3.19  per cent, followed by Nasarawa at 3.16 per cent, and Yobe at 1.18 per cent.

“Plateau at -2.76 per cent, followed by Rivers at -2.50 per cent and Zamfara at -1.93  per cent, recorded a decline in food inflation on a month-on-month basis.”

The S-G said that in analysing price movements at the state level, CPI was weighted by consumption expenditure patterns that differ across states and locations.

“Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from state to state, making interstate comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading.”

NBS recently rebased the CPI. This rebasing brought the base year closer to the current period, from 2009 to 2024, with 2023 as the reference period for expenditure weights

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