Naira Falls Against U.S Dollar, Total FX Inflow Rises to $788m
The trading value of the Nigerian naira fell on Monday as demand for the US dollar overwhelmed the supply side despite Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) intervention in the currency market late last week.
FX data from the CBN showed the spot rate closed at N1533.67 per dollar at the beginning of the week, losing less than N1 on the day from N1532.51 at the close of the trading session on Friday.
The spot rate hit an intraday high of N1535, reflecting a possible one-off increase in demand at the beginning of the week, and the intraday low rate was priced at N1532. The CBN sold $166 million to authorised dealer banks for N153 billion last week to reduce pressures on the local currency by boosting US dollar volume at the official market.
The nation’s foreign reserves edged higher to $40.72 billion, according to data from the CBN platform. Last week, the Naira showed a marginal appreciation against the US dollar. Total FX inflows rose to US$787.50 million, Coronation Merchant Bank research unit said in a report on Monday, compared to US$732.80 million in the prior week.
Further details revealed that non-bank corporates remained the largest contributors, accounting for US$227.4 million of total inflows, ahead of exporters at US$179.6 million inflows. The CBN accounted for US$171.2 million, while Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) followed closely with US$167.4 million, according to Coronation Research.
The bank reported that individual sources contributed US$37.3 million to FX inflows, while other international sources made up 0.57% of total inflows. Gross external reserves rose to US$40.72 billion, supported by steady daily accretions.
Analysts at Coronation Research expect the Naira to trade within a relatively stable band in the near term, supported by sustained FX inflows from corporates, exporters, and foreign portfolio investors, alongside improved gross external reserves reporting.
However, they think exchange rate dynamics will remain sensitive to oil price movements, foreign investor sentiment, and the CBN’s policy stance, particularly regarding market interventions and liquidity management.
Oil
Brent crude ended the week down 1.11% week on week, closing at US$65.85 per barrel from US$66.59 in the prior week; its year-to-date loss rose to 11.78%, from 10.79% a week earlier.
The 2025 average price now stands at US$70.23/bbl, down 12.05% from the 2024 average, according to analysts. In contrast, Bonny Light inched higher by 0.59%, closing at US$70.25/bbl.
Oil prices closed lower as traders awaited the outcome of the talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which could potentially ease sanctions on Moscow and alter supply dynamics.
At the same time, weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data was highlighted by the slowest factory output in eight months and the weakest retail sales growth since December. This raised concerns over fuel demand in the world’s second-largest crude consumer, overshadowing the boost from stronger refinery throughput.
Initial analysis of the U.S.–Russia talks indicates that President Trump largely aligned with President Putin on the parameters of a peace deal, diverging from the previous demand for a ceasefire to be declared first as previously demanded by Ukraine and its European allies.
This development is likely to broaden forecasts for an oil market surplus, driven by the potential easing of sanctions on Russian oil should the Ukrainian government accept the peace deal conditions outlined by President Putin. The prospect of increased Russian supply, alongside rising output from the wider OPEC+ group, adds to expectations of market imbalance, analysts at Coronation said.
However, the outcome of today’s US-Ukraine meeting will be closely watched, as it could influence sentiment, with the prevailing expectation of higher supply already weighing on crude prices. #Naira Falls Against U.S Dollar, Total FX Inflow Rises to $788m Nigeria Non-Oil Exports Hit $3.225bn in Half-Year 2025 – NEPC DG
