GTCO’s Resilient Performance Amid CBN Dividend Halt: A Case for Investor Accumulation
On a trading day where the broader FUGAZ group closed in red territory due to market shock following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) dividend halt directive, GTCO Plc stood out as the lone positive performer, reflecting renewed investor confidence and an undercurrent of resilience in its fundamentals.
GTCO opened trading at N71.50 and closed at N75.65, marking a gain of N4.15 or +5.80%, placing it among the top gainers of the day. This rally was backed by strong investor interest, as evidenced by:
Total transaction value: N6.2 billion
Volume of deals: 1,044 trades
Average daily volume: N31 billion
The stock’s movement is particularly significant when juxtaposed against its 52-week high of N78.65 and a 50-day moving average of N67.44, indicating a positive technical breakout and momentum-driven accumulation by institutional investors.
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s directive to temporarily halt dividend payments across Tier-1 banks caused a wave of sell-offs in the sector, given investors’ expectations for high dividend yields in a tightening monetary environment. However, GTCO’s market behaviour defied the trend, with investors seemingly shifting focus to underlying strength and long-term fundamentals over near-term yield limitations.
GTCO’s unaudited Q1 2025 numbers reflect a mixed but strategically robust position, particularly in core banking operations:
Metric Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2024 % Change
● Net Interest Income N318.4bn (2025) N227.3bn (2024) +40.1%
● Net Interest Income (post impairment) N304.9bn (2025) N213.8bn (2024) +42.6%
● Profit Before Tax (PBT) N300.4bn (2025) N509.3bn (2024) -41.0%
● Profit After Tax (PAT) N258.0bn (2025 N457.0bn (2024)-43.5%
● Earnings Per Share (EPS) N7.84 (2025) N16.23 (2024) -51.7%
● Retained Earnings N1.5 trillion (2025) N1.3 trillion (2024) +15.4%
While the drop in PBT and PAT may initially appear discouraging, this is more reflective of macro policy headwinds, FX revaluation impacts, and regulatory provisioning costs rather than core operational weaknesses. The net interest income surge suggests a resilient and well-optimised asset deployment strategy, likely supported by better loan pricing, asset-liability management, and growing retail banking revenues.
The growth in retained earnings to N1.5 trillion demonstrates capital accumulation and balance sheet strength—important for dividend sustainability once the regulatory environment stabilises.
At a closing price of N75.65 and EPS of N7.84, GTCO trades at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.65x, still below sector average and market expectations given its historical dividend-paying capacity, cost efficiency, and leadership position in digital banking innovation.
While trading above its 50-day MA indicates short-to-mid-term bullish sentiment.
The narrow spread between its current price and 52-week high suggests room for upward movement, contingent on positive macro triggers or regulatory clarity.
Investor Recommendation: “BUY”/ “ACCUMULATE”
in view of the bank strong core operational performance (e.g., NII growth), solid capital retention and earnings resilience,
A technically strong price action amidst sector sell-offs, and long-term confidence in GTCO’s diversified revenue model (banking, asset management, payments),
We therefore recommend a “BUY” or “ACCUMULATE” strategy on GTCO Plc for medium to long-term investors seeking exposure to a fundamentally sound and increasingly tech-enabled financial powerhouse in West Africa.
In Summary, GTCO has proven its mettle by outperforming its Tier-1 peers under duress. For discerning investors, this is a signal of defensive strength, value preservation, and latent upside potential. #GTCO’s Resilient Performance Amid CBN Dividend Halt: A Case for Investor Accumulation#
