Inflation Rate for December to Rise Sharply to 33.6% – Afrinvest
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate has been projected to rise sharply to 33.6% in December 2025 as base effects are set to disrupt an eight-month disinflation trend.
Ahead of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report, Afrinvest Limited dropped a hint that the consumer price index (CPI) would worsen by 19.15%, from a 14.45% inflation reading in November 2025 to 33.6%.
In its update, Afrinvest stated that leading into December, Nigeria had recorded eight consecutive months of disinflation between April and November 2025.
Over this period, the headline inflation rate – a composite measure capturing food, energy, and core price movements – declined steadily from 24.2% year on year in March to 14.5% in November.
The firm noted that this marked the lowest reading since the CPI rebasing in December 2024 and the softest inflation outcome since October 2020 at 14.2%, under the previous CPI framework.
The December 2024 rebasing materially altered the CPI structure. Afrinvest said the weights of food & non-alcoholic beverages and energy declined to 40.1% and 6.4% from 51.8% and 10.8%, respectively, while the core component – which captures the price dynamics of less volatile items – expanded to 53.5% from 37.4%.
This structural shift partly explains the pronounced disinflation observed through most of 2025, even when market prices of major staples and consumer necessities remained sticky.
“Based on our model, which benchmarks December 2025 price dynamics against the rebased CPI baseline of December 2024, we estimate headline inflation to rise sharply to 33.6% year on year from 14.5% in November, driven largely by base effects,” Afrinvest said in a pre-inflation note.
On a month on month basis, headline inflation is estimated at 2.4% versus 1.2% in November 2024, representing the strongest monthly increase since March 2025, when it printed at 3.9%.
Afrinvest said both food and core components are expected to contribute to the projected uptick. Food inflation is estimated to rise by 2.7% month on month from 1.1% in November.
On year on year, food inflation is expected to jump to 31.7% from 11.1%, reflecting base effects and typical year-end demand pressures on staples and frozen foods.
Core inflation is estimated at 1.9% in December, up from 1.3% in November. On year on year basis, core inflation is expected to rise to 34.5% from 18.0%, also largely driven by base effects.
Afrinvest estimates Nigeria’s average headline inflation rate for 2025 at 22.1%, which is significantly higher that the Federal Government’s budget baseline of 15.8%.
Analysts said they anticipate the average print to correct downward to 15.4% in 2026 on the support of relative exchange rate stability and statistical realignment. Naira Drops to N1,419 Amidst Broad Stability Projection
