Oil Rebounds Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting
Crude Oil

Ahead of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies (OPEC+) rescheduled meeting for Nov. 30, global prices of crude ascended moderately after falling below $80 per barrel.

Brent price rose by 0.79% to $80.50 per barrel from the closing price of $79.87 a barrel in the previous trading session on Monday.

The American benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), traded at the same time at $75.47 per barrel, up 0.81% from Monday’s close of $74.86 per barrel.

Supply uncertainties in global oil markets continue to impact oil prices. The meeting of OPEC+ members scheduled for Nov. 26 in Vienna was postponed by four days to Nov. 30.

MarketForces Africa reported that there was a dispute among OPEC+ members over production quotas for 2024. The group is expected to determine its production quotas to be imposed from January onward.

Since 2022, the group has collectively agreed to cut about 5 million barrels of production daily, but the pledge to reduce output has failed to reduce supply excesses on the global market.

If OPEC+ production cuts continue, the average global oil supply is expected to reach 102.8 million barrels per day. Despite production reductions, this represents a surplus of almost 1.3 million barrels per day, the International Energy Agency said in its latest analysis.

Additionally, investors are closely following US Fed officials’ statements for further insight into the world’s biggest oil consumer’s interest rate policy. Analysts are awaiting macroeconomic data from the US, scheduled for later in the day.

Meanwhile, supply-side concerns slightly eased after Hamas and Israel initiated a prisoner exchange and a four-day humanitarian break with an additional two-day extension.

The oil market came under further pressure yesterday despite growing reports that Saudi Arabia is pressing the broader OPEC+ group to agree to deeper supply cuts when they meet on Thursday.

ICE Brent settled just below US$80 as the market increasingly focuses on a looser oil balance early next year.  The extension of additional voluntary cuts from Saudi Arabia should erase most of the surplus expected in 1Q24, ING commodities strategists said in a Tuesday note.

However, if OPEC+ want to provide more solid support to the market and ensure that we do not see stocks building early next year, they will need to agree on deeper and broader when it cuts. Nigeria Eurobond Slumps after CBN Resumes OMO Auction

The Saudis and OPEC+ have made a habit of surprising markets in recent years come to their meetings. However, with aggressive cuts already in place, it does leave one wondering the degree to which the group could surprise the market with deeper-than-expected cuts.

Elsewhere, European natural gas prices came under further pressure yesterday with TTF settling more than 5.7% lower on the day.