Oil Prices Increase, OPEC+ Faces Compliance Risks
In the global commodity market, prices of crude oil increased over renewed optimism surrounding trade talks between the US and China, of which Beijing has denied in totality.
The oil gains were capped by expectation of increase output by the members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies. The group is set to meet May 5, to agree on members’ quota, though risk on compliance has increased –with members prioritising national interest over quota.
The market is also expecting Russia-Ukraine ceasefire plan to scale through, helping to stem potential increase in energy costs. Brent crude rose by around 0.5%, trading at $66 per barrel.
US benchmark West Texas Intermediate increased by about 0.6%, reaching at $63.03 per barrel, compared to its prior session close of $62.64. While the US administration’s protectionist trade policy and harsh economic rhetoric continue to influence oil prices, President Trump’s softened tone toward Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and China is drawing attention.
In a shift from his earlier comments, Trump said he has no plans to remove Powell from his role at the Fed. Emphasizing that the Fed Chair should be more proactive in cutting interest rates, Trump stated, ‘We think the Fed should lower the interest rate. “In our opinion, this is the perfect time to cut. We expect Powell to act early or on time, rather than late on this issue.’
Despite denials from Beijing, UTrump claimed that tariff negotiations with China were ongoing. The overall optimism regarding trade talks continues to influence market sentiment. In his latest remarks, Trump reiterated that discussions with China were taking place.
Following tariff disputes, the US administration is also pursuing negotiations with other countries. On Thursday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that trade talks with South Korea might be progressing faster than anticipated.
‘We had a very successful bilateral meeting with the Republic of South Korea today. We may be moving faster than I thought, and we will be talking technical terms as early as next week as we reach an agreement on understanding as soon as next week,’ Bessent said.
However, growing concerns over a potential oversupply in the oil market are curbing further price increases. OPEC+ ramped up production this month and are expected to continue doing so into June.
Eight key producers—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—are scheduled to meet on May 5 to discuss future output levels.
Kazakhstan reported that its oil output in the first two weeks of April fell by 3% compared to the March average, yet production remains above its OPEC+ quota.
The Kazakh Energy Minister stated that when deciding on production levels, national interests would take precedence over OPEC+ goals, and that the country would not restrict independent oil companies or shut down its own fields, as doing so would harm future output.
Additionally, US diplomatic efforts concerning the Russia-Ukraine conflict and ongoing nuclear deal negotiations with Iran are also raising oversupply concerns. #Oil Prices Increase, OPEC+ Faces Compliance Risks#
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