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Nigerian GDP expands 2.27% in 2019 on stable oil production

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 2.27% in 2019, the National Bureau of Statistics  has revealed.

This growth record surpassed 2.1% estimated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the country for the period.

In 2018, the nation’s grew by 1.9% as it stands as the best growth point reached since 2015.

In the fourth quarter of 2019, GDP grew by 2.55% year-on-year in real terms. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2018 which recorded a growth rate of 2.38%.

The change represents an increase of 0.17% points, an increase of 0.27% points when compared with the third quarter of 2019.

NBS said the strong fourth quarter 2019 growth rate also represented the highest quarterly growth performance since the 2016 recession.

“Overall, this resulted in annual 2019 real growth rate of 2.27%, compared to 1.91% in 2018. Quarter on quarter, real GDP growth was 5.59%”, NBS stated.

In Q4 2019, aggregate GDP stood at N39,577,340.04 million in nominal terms.

This was higher than the fourth quarter of 2018 which recorded an aggregate of N35,230,607.63 million, representing year on year nominal growth rate of 12.34%.

This rate was –0.31% points lower relative to the rate recorded in the fourth quarter of 2018 and –0.96% points lower than the rate recorded in the preceding quarter.

For better clarity, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors.

During the fourth quarter of 2019, average daily oil production of 2.00 million barrels per day (mbpd) was recorded.

This indicates a rise of 0.09 mbpd over the daily average production of 1.91 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2018.

However, it was 0.04 mbpd lower than the production volume of 2.04 mbpd recorded in the third quarter of 2019.

Nevertheless, it is notable that oil production remained consistently at or above 2.0 mbpd all through 2019.

Thus, real growth of the oil sector was 6.36% year-on-year in Q4 2019 indicating an increase of 7.98% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2018.

Growth decreased by 0.13% points when compared to Q3 2019 which was 6.49%. Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of –20.87% in Q4 2019.

On an annual basis, oil recorded 4.59% growth in 2019, higher compared to 0.97% recorded in 2018.

The Oil sector contributed 7.32% to total real GDP in Q4 2019, up from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2018, down compared to the preceding quarter, where it contributed 7.06% and 9.77% respectively.

Oil contributed 8.78% to real GDP in 2019.The non-oil sector grew by 2.26% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q4 2019).

This was lower by 0.44% points compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2018 but 0.42% point higher than the third quarter of 2019.

This sector was driven during the fourth quarter of 2019 by Information/Communication (Telecommunications), Agriculture (Crop Production), Financial/Insurance Services (Financial Institutions), and Manufacturing.

In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 92.68% to the nation’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2019.

This was lower from shares recorded in the fourth quarter of 2018 (92.94%) but higher than the third quarter of 2019 (90.23%).

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The annual contribution of the non-Oil sector stood at 91.22% in 2019.

In real terms, the Mining and Quarrying sector grew by 6.07% (year-on-year) in the fourth quarter of 2019.

This was higher by 7.31% points but lower by –0.11% points respectively when compared to Q4 2018 and Q3 2019.

Quarter on quarter, growth rate recorded was –20.23%, which means value added in third quarter 2019 was higher than in fourth quarter 2019.

However, annual 2019 growth stood at 4.43%, higher than the 1.11% recorded in 2018.

The Mining & Quarrying sector consists of Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas, Coal Mining, Metal ore and Quarrying and other Minerals sub-activities.

This sector grew nominally by 12.75% (year on year) in Q4 2019.

Quarrying and other minerals exhibited the highest growth rate of all the sub-activities at 72.11% followed by metal ore activity at 10.98%.

However, Crude Petroleum and Natural gas was the main contributor to the sector with a weight of 94.59% in Q4 2019 and 97.11% for annual 2019.

Analysing Q4 2019 rate of growth against the Q4 2018 and Q3 2019 growth rates showed an increase of 22.15% and 6.76% points respectively.

The Mining & Quarrying sector contributed 6.86% to overall GDP in Q4 2019, higher than the contributions recorded in Q4 2018 (6.83%) but lower than the preceding quarter (9.87%).

Its 2019 contribution stood at 8.85%, lower than 10.68% recorded in 2018.

The contribution of Mining and Quarrying to Real GDP in the quarter under review stood at 7.48%, higher than the rate of 7.23% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2018.

However, it was lower than the 9.90% recorded in the third quarter of 2019 respectively.

Nigerian GDP expands 2.27% in 2019 on stable oil production

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