Food prices rose in Kogi, Plateau and Lagos in the month of March as headline inflation rate declined 60 basis points to close at 11.26%. The consumer price index, (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 11.25 percent (year-on-year) in March 2019, the Nigerian Bureau of Statistic notified in its recent report. The change is 0.06 percent points lower than the rate recorded in February 2019 when inflation rate rested at 11.31 percent. Increases were recorded in all 12 Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) divisions that yielded the Headline index.
NBS report shows that on month-on-month basis, the headline index increased by 0.79 percent in March 2019, this is 0.06 percent rate higher than the rate recorded in February 2019 (0.73) percent. The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending March 2019 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 11.40 percent, showing 0.16 percent point from 11.56 percent recorded in February 2019.
It however observed that the urban inflation rate increased by 11.54 percent (year-on-year) in March 2019 from 11.59 percent recorded in February 2019, while the rural inflation rate increased by 10.99 percent in March 2019 from 11.05 percent in February 2019. Again, on a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 0.81 percent in March 2019, up by 0.05 from 0.76 percent recorded in February 2019, while the rural index also rose by 0.77 percent in March 2019, up by 0.06 from the rate recorded in February 2019 (0.71) percent.
Meanwhile, the corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 11.78 percent in March 2019. This is less than 11.95 percent reported in February 2019, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in March 2019 is 11.08 percent compared to 11.23 percent recorded in February 2019
The composite food index rose by 13.45 percent in March 2019 compared to 13.47 percent in February 2019. This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Bread and cereals, Meat, Fish, Potatoes, Yam and other tubers, Oils and fats, and Soft drinks, Vegetables, and Fruits.
On month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 0.88 percent in March 2019, up by 0.06 percent points from 0.82 percent recorded in February 2019. The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending March 2019 over the previous twelve-month average was 13.42 percent, 0.20 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in February 2019 (13.62) percent.
The ”All items less farm produce” or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 9.5 percent in March 2019, down by 0.3 percent when compared with 9.8 percent recorded in February 2019. On month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 0.53 percent in March 2019.
This was down by 0.12 percent when compared with 0.65 percent recorded in February 2019. The highest increases were recorded in prices of Domestic and household services, Tobacco, Actual and imputed rent for housing, Dental, Medical and Hospital services, Tobacco, Major household appliances The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 10.04 percent for the twelve-month period ending March 2019; this is 0.15 percent points lower than 10.19 percent recorded in February 2019.
In March 2019, all items inflation on year on year basis was highest in Kebbi (14.65%), Zamfara (13.15%) and Taraba (12.98%), while Kwara (9.84%) Cross River (9.66%) and Delta (9.61%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation.
On month on month basis however, March 2019 all items inflation was highest in Kogi (1.91%), Plateau (1.77%), and Lagos (1.63%), while Nasarawa (0.26%), Kwara (0.16%) and Enugu (0.13%) recorded the slowest rise. In analysing price movements under this section, note that the CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across states.
Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from state to state making interstate comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading.
In March 2019, food inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Kebbi (16.35%), Niger (16.22%) and Kwara (15.95%), while Bauchi (11.82%), Delta (11.70%) and Ogun (11.55%) recorded the slowest rise.
On month on month basis however, March 2019 food inflation was highest in Kogi (2.97%), Lagos and Plateau (2.11%) and Oyo (2.04%), while Imo and Nasarawa (0.12%), Enugu (0.11%) recorded the slowest rise with Bayelsa recording food price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of goods and services or a negative inflation rate).